金属市场3月表现超越金砖四国股市，正进入甜蜜的15年大循环期

原物料价格再涨，国际黄金及铜矿价格持续挑战历史新高。美林投资管理指出，金属市场3月表现超越金砖四国股市，正进入甜蜜的15年大循环期，后市持续看好。
　　黄金上周冲上每英两586.7美元，创25年以来高点。理柏（Lipper）统计，如果换算成新台币，摩根士丹利资本国际（MSCI）全球矿业股价指数涨幅达约8.7%，远高于MSCI金砖四国指数的1.26%。

　　全球矿业股价指数去年大涨42%后，今年第一季再涨16.8%，在所有主要类股指数中表现第一。至于国内核备的世界黄金及矿业类股基金，今年以来报酬率更超过一成，有的更逼近两成。这些基金波动虽大，每个月涨跌幅都可能超过10%，但近年来表现优异，五年来累积报酬率超过三、四倍。

　　美林投资管理表示，受惠中国及印度等国家经济成长，基础建设增加，新兴国家金属需求强劲，但市场供给有限，是推升金属交易热络的主要成长动力。金属在供需吃紧下，正进入史上大循环期，上涨空间仍然可期。

　　美林投资管理表示，过去主要四大黄金产区南非、美国、加拿大及澳洲的矿场逐渐枯竭，如南非去年金矿产量较前年减少13%，是自1923年以来黄金开採量的新低点。

　　根据统计，中国大陆平均每人铜矿使用量仍然偏低，只约有台湾的9%。中国大陆农村都市化已成为今年开始的第11次五年规画重点，过去铜矿需求成长率约介于2.1%到3.1%，但预计未来基础建设所需的铜矿数量每年将以3.9%的速度加快成长，支撑全球铜矿需求。

　　美林投资管理表示，由于全球大型新矿场已不復见，因此不只是铜矿十年来的矿场探勘支出缩减，铁砂、镍、锌、铝等其他基本金属也面临供给严重吃紧，供不应求情况仍然持续。

　　美林投资管理表示，矿业公司获利处在有史以来最佳状况，数年来的贵金属多头市场，使矿业公司现金流量愈来愈丰厚，相对于较高的股东投资报酬率及获利成长，许多矿业公司股价仍然严重低估。因此，即使矿业类股股价涨幅已高，未来上档空间仍然宽广。

美林投资管理 Merrill Lynch 的来历

Merrill and his friend, Edmund C. Lynch, created Merrill Lynch in 1915. Merrill made his money by investing. In the 1920s Merrill Lynch became a major investor in Safeway Inc. and S. S. Kresge Corporation, the forerunner of the Kmart Corporation.

Merrill anticipated the Stock market crash of 1929, divesting his money before the Great Depression. He had, in fact, pleaded with President Calvin Coolidge (like Merrill, an Amherst alumnus) to speak out against speculation, but Coolidge did not listen to him.

In 1939, immediately preceding the boom caused by World War II, Merrill decided to take Merrill Lynch nationwide. He was convinced that the average American who wanted to invest should be able to buy shares in the stock market, which was previously a playground for the wealthy. He instructed his employees to hold seminars at which husbands and wives could leave their children with child care providers while the parents learned how they, too, could invest.

Merrill was a well-known philanderer and bon vivant. He was married three times and gained the nickname "Good Time Charlie Merrill".

Charles Merrill is the namesake of the Merrill Science Center at Amherst College and of Merrill College at the University of California, Santa Cruz, built in 1968. He was the father of the philanthropist Doris Merrill Magowan, poet James Ingram Merrill (1926-1995) and of educator, author, and philanthropist Charles E. Merrill, Jr. (b. 1920), founder of Thomas Jefferson School and founder and first headmaster of the Commonwealth School.