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 ZT 左小蕾：加息宜早不宜晚 从来没有唱空中国股市 |
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ZT 许小年：油价、房价和股价 -- EIC - (2069 Byte) 2007-7-09 周一, 17:09 (912 reads) |
EIC
头衔: 海归中将
声望: 讲师
加入时间: 2005/08/04
文章: 1255
海归分: 421989
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作者：EIC 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
https://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=3902
Posted July 2007
Traders in London and New York aren’t quite sure what to make of China’s chaotic stock markets. In this week’s Seven Questions, renowned Asia economist Andy Xie explains the unique psychology of Chinese investors, why the country’s markets are crashing, and how that matters 7,300 miles away on Wall Street.
FOREIGN POLICY: Is a stock market crash in China imminent, or has it already happened?
Andy Xie: The crash happened when the [Shanghai Composite] index dropped from 4300 to 3600. If the government had not intervened to prop up the market, it would have crashed to 3000. The government felt uncomfortable about this and all the government officials came out to support the index. The index bounced back up to about 4000, now it’s dropped to 3900 again. The market is now in a correction phase. About 300 stocks out of 1500 have dropped by roughly about 50 percent from the top. Most of those stocks are low quality. The index per se is down by about 10 percent, so it’s actually not much. But the real damage is much greater.
FP: Is it a full-blown correction?
AX: Well, I think we’re seeing a correction. By global standards it’s very severe, but by Chinese standards it’s not. It’s a 50 percent downfall, 20 percent of stocks. By global standards, it would be horrific. But in China it’s not. Once you see stocks down another 50 percent, then you can call this a full blown correction.
FP: What impact has the drop in the market had on the Chinese public?
AX: Quite a lot. The market psychology is strange. I feel that this is a turning point. And because of this changing psychology, the market adjustment is probably going to last for quite a while. But this is not the final bust of the Chinese market, because money is still plentiful. The liquidity in the system is still humongous. It’s not a general asset market meltdown. We have seen the stock market is not doing well, but the housing market is doing better and the liquidity is back in the property market and we’re seeing a [real estate] frenzy going on in second tier cities—Chongqing and Shenzhen have gone through the roof. So China has still got a humongous amount of liquidity.
FP: Has much of the craziness stopped, or do you still see college students investing all of their tuition money in the market and the like?
AX: It’s cooled off quite a lot. You see some tragedy going on: someone borrowed money, pawned his apartment to invest in so-called ST [special treatment] stocks, companies that basically are not able to report earnings, shell companies. These stocks are crashing right now, so a lot of people have been hurt very, very badly. But somehow Chinese people can take a lot. So you have tragedies from time to time, but so far we have not seen a lot of disturbances. The Chinese government has a way of dealing with these situations: They give you some money and so forth, try to make you feel better.
FP: Is it rational for a one-day decline in Shanghai to spill over into markets in New York and London?
AX: Yeah, in the sense that if the stock market declines it really affects China’s economic outlook. China is now is a big part of global companies’ earnings. Look at Proctor and Gamble, Colgate, look at GM—all those—for so many companies, their earnings from China are not negligible anymore. So this is why the global stock market might have become connected to the Chinese stock market. But after dropping a few times, the global markets have learned to separate China’s market volatility from its economy. Because the Chinese economy is still going strong, overheating. The banking system has tons of money, and the people who want to spend money have a lot of money in the banking system, and that’s just a combination for overheating. Overheating in China will last for a while. The global financial markets have come to this view and therefore they disregard China’s stock market volatility.
FP: Was Beijing’s decision to allow partial foreign ownership in banks real reform?
AX: On paper, the banks have done very well, with a lot of capital gains. But my worry is that their earnings are so dependent on government protection. Their lending margin is regulated by the government. The lending rates are regulated by the government. And the lending margin is just out-sized by global standards at close to 400 basis points. If there were genuine competition, I don’t know if they’d do that well. And besides, the local governments are promoting local banks now, because the state banks, after they are listed on the stock market, may not work as well with the local governments as before. So I suspect the local banks will do much better than the state-owned banks.
FP: In 2005, you said that world oil prices were on the verge of collapse. Are you still bearish on oil?
AX: I did not say oil was on the verge of collapse, I said it was a huge bubble—crazy. At $400 billion, the financial capital in the oil market is a relatively small market. Chinese demand compared to this financial capital is relatively small. China imports 3.5 million barrels a day, total consumption is about 700 million barrels, and growth is about 7 to 8 percent. So we’re talking about growth of about 500,000 barrels a day. And 500,000 barrels at $50 is $25 million a day. When talking about China, that’s what we’re talking about. But on the other side we have this $400 billion in the market, so what I’ve been pointing out is this is a financial phenomenon, not a supply-demand [issue]. There is strong economic growth, there is strong demand, but this is not so important relative to financial demand. Financial demand will come down when the cost of capital goes up. When U.S. interest rates are high, then people will pull out. It’s ridiculous; this is just a financial bubble. Now look at how many oil traders there are in the oil market today: five times as many as five years ago. The price of oil will come down when inflation is a problem and all the central banks raise interest rates. That’s what I see.
China-ba<x>sed economist Andy Xie is the former chief economist for Morgan Stanley in Asia.
谢国忠：股市渐趋理性将影响华尔街
https://news.hexun.com/4162_2345659C.shtml
纽约和伦敦市场的投资者对于中国股市目前仍了解不多。为此，美国《外交政策》杂志日前采访了前摩根斯坦利亚洲首席经济学家谢国忠（Andy Xie），发表了有关中国股市的7个问题的看法。
中国股市崩溃是否即将来临，或者说已经发生？
当上证指数从4300点跌至3600点时，这一“崩溃”就已经发生。如果政府不干涉市场，那么有可能跌破3000点。当然，政府对于这种情况感到不满，几乎所有政府官员都站出来支持股市。股市随后回升到4000点，不过现在又跌至3900点。市场目前处于回落阶段，1500只股票中的300只股价只有最高时的一半。大部分这类股票质量较低。
中国股市是否处于全面的回落中？
我认为我们已经看见市场回落的发生。以全球的标准看，这一回落是严重的，但是从中国的标准来看却不是。这是50%的下跌，涉及到20%的股票。从全球标准看这很可怕，但是只有出现另50%的下跌才能称为“全面的回落”。
市场回落对于中国公众有什么影响？
有很多影响。市场的心理非常奇怪，我认为这是转折点。由于心理变化，市场的调整可能会经历较长时间。但是这并不意味着中国市场最终的失败，因为市场上的资金仍然很多，整个系统的流通性仍是巨大的。我们经历过股票市场表现不好的时候，但是此时房地产市场将升温，资金会流入房地产市场中。我们也看到了房地产市场的狂热，例如在重庆和深圳。
大部分的狂热行为是不是已经停止？你是否仍然见到大学生将学费投资到股市中？
这种狂热已经大部分停止了，但是仍然能看见一些悲剧在出现：一些人借钱、抵押掉房产投资ST股票，这些公司几乎不会报告营收，有些甚至是空壳公司。目前这些股票下跌非常严重，许多人因此遭到沉重打击。这些悲剧是一直存在的，但是现在已经越来越少。中国政府也采取措施应对这种情况。
是否有可能某一天上海股市下跌影响到纽约和伦敦的市场？
确实是。如果股票市场下跌，那么将影响中国整体的经济前景。中国已经是跨国公司营收的主要来源之一，例如宝洁、高露洁以及通用汽车，他们在中国的营收不可能被忽略。在这种意义上，全球股市与中国股市密不可分。但是，由于已经有过数次下跌，全球市场已经懂得将中国股市的不稳定性与实际的经济情况区分开。中国经济增长仍然十分强劲，并且有过热趋势。中国的银行系统仍有大量资金，有投资能力的人在银行中的存款也非常多，这都是导致过热出现的原因。这种过热趋势将持续较长时间。
中国政府允许部分外资进入银行业是否是一次真正的改革？
从纸面上看，银行业表现的很好，有大量的资本收益。但是我的担忧在于他们的营收几乎完全依赖于政府保护，他们的贷款利润受到政府的调控，贷款利率同样也是由政府规定。以全球标准来看，贷款利润的规模是十分巨大的，接近400个基本点。如果存在真正的竞争，我不知道他们是否能表现的同样好。此外，各地的地方政府都在促进本地银行的发展，这是由于国有银行在上市之后很可能不能像以前一样与地方政府进行良好合作。因此，我猜测各地的银行可能会比国有银行表现更好。
2005年，你曾表示全球油价濒临崩溃的边缘。你是否仍对油价表示关注？
我当时表示全球油价出现泡沫，并非濒临崩溃。4000亿美元规模的金融资本对于原油市场来说只是很小的一块。相对于中国拥有的金融资本，中国要求的只是很小一块。目前中国原油进口量为每天350万桶，总消费达每天7亿桶，此外增长率为7%至8%。因此，增长总数大约为每天50万桶。如果油价为每桶50美元，那么一天的原油消费将增长250万美元。我认为石油问题只是金融问题，而不是供需关系的问题。
作者：EIC 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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 ZT 左小蕾：加息宜早不宜晚 从来没有唱空中国股市 -- EIC - (6743 Byte) 2007-7-09 周一, 17:06 (2304 reads) - ZT 许小年：油价、房价和股价 -- EIC - (2069 Byte) 2007-7-09 周一, 17:09 (912 reads)
- ZT 谢国忠：Seven Questions: The Wild, Wild East of Capitalism -- EIC - (7840 Byte) 2007-7-09 周一, 23:06 (555 reads)
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