don't analyse too much. If u have a hunch, go test it. u need a sense of urgency too, or a sense of desperation, such as being laidoff or being totally bored abroad or being a opportunist.
analyse too much will not help. soon, u'll analyse your analysis. there is no end to it. opportunity cost? May be. can be considered as investment too. just do a first order analysis. don't go to the Nth order.
action is more important. just jump in and learn to swim. good luck.