【咯咯乌股票市场讲座】【小周小周看过来】无锡尚德的投资价值 【作业】分析数据, 判断评论的对错
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#1: 【咯咯乌股票市场讲座】【小周小周看过来】无锡尚德的投资价值 【作业】分析数据, 判断评论的对错 (2928 reads) 作者: 咯咯乌来自: 森林边上的小木屋 文章时间: 2006-10-10 周二, 11:41
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作者:咯咯乌海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com




BUSINESS SUMMARY 公司介绍
Suntech Power Holdings Co., Ltd., through its subsidiaries, principally engages in the design, development, manufacturing, and marketing of photovoltaic (PV) cells and modules. It also provides PV system integration services in China. The company’s products are used to provide electric power for residential, commercial, industrial, and public utility applications in various markets worldwide. Suntech Power Holdings sells its products to distributors, engineering design firms, system integrators, and other value-added resellers, as well as integrated manufacturers of PV products. The company was founded in 2001 by Zhengrong Shi and is headquartered in Wuxi, China.

VALUATION MEASURES 价值系数
Market Cap (intraday): 3.54B
Enterprise Value (10-Oct-06): 3.27B
Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday): N/A
Forward P/E (fye 31-Dec-07) : 20.30
PEG Ratio (5 yr expected): 0.68
Price/Sales (ttm): N/A
Price/Book (mrq): 7.63
Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm): NaN
Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm): N/A

DETAILS 行业和员工数
Index Membership: N/A
Sector: Technology
Industry: Diversified Electronics
Full Time Employees: 1,374

股票价值评估
引用:
Present Value

Ok, let's assume the following to help come up with some kind of a "present value"

2006 earning of .62 per share with 149 million outstanding. (156 fully diluted, i know,but i'll use 149 million)

2006 = $92.38 million in profit
2007 = $169.86 million in profit.. grow 75%
2008 = $271.78 million in profit.. grow 60%
2009 = $407.66 million in profit.. grow 50%
2010 = $570.73 million in profit..


Ok, so in 2010, STP can earn $570 million.. let's put a P/E of 15 (fairly conservative) on it and we get a market cap of $8.560 Billion.

Discount $8.560 billion at 12% per year for 4 years and we get a present value of:

$5.440 billion or ..drum roll.. $36.51 per share.

$36.51 per share could be the fair value of STP.

It's a start..

Sentiment : Hold


产品市场展望
引用:
Here is a c/p from a long article in the Sydney Morning Herald.
[https://www.smh.com.au/news/national/arise-the-sun-king/2006/09/11/1157826874519.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap4]
About 80 per cent of Suntech's sales are to Europe, primarily Germany, where the Government has made a long-term commitment to promoting the introduction of photovoltaics and other renewable energies - a strategy Australian solar scientists think this country would do well to emulate. Suntech last month bought a Japanese photovoltaics solar company, MSK Corporation, to improve its position in that growing market.

It's Chinese market will be boosted by a renewable energy law which took effect in January which aims for 15 per cent of China's energy to be generated from renewable sources by 2020, in a bid to overcome soaring oil prices and pollution. Suntech has already been selected to provide solar energy for Beijing's bird's nest stadium, where the 2008 Olympic track and field events will be held.


风险分析: 政府对太阳能应用补贴的减少
引用:
Whole PV sector (WFR, STP, SPWR, ESLR) has been down over 50% since May. Correction to the speculation of the sector, and sharp drop of the price for oil and nature gas in lst two months all contibuted to the down turn. Last Friday, the attched news push the whole sector down average by 5% again. PV sector depends on the gov. subsidies in EU (mainly German) and Japan.

STP is on the top of the cream that really grows faster than the industy, more importantly makes serious money. It is a good buy at current price. To alleviate any down risk, I would sell near term cover call with 3-5% premium.

Stock Price History 股票价格历史
Beta: 0
52-Week Change: N/A
S&P500 52-Week Change: 14.69%
52-Week High (23-Jan-06): 45.95
52-Week Low (14-Dec-05): 19.00
50-Day Moving Average: 26.4643
200-Day Moving Average: 28.9368
Share Statistics 股票数统计
Average Volume (3 month): 1,385,930
Average Volume (10 day): 1,542,410
Shares Outstanding: 149.16M
Float: N/A
% Held by Insiders: 47.91%
% Held by Institutions: 21.20%
Shares Short (as of 12-Sep-06): 3.00M
Short Ratio (as of 12-Sep-06): 1.9
Short % of Float (as of 12-Sep-06): N/A
Shares Short (prior month): 3.48M



作者:咯咯乌海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com



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