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 美股必读：Dow up 87, sees first monthly gain since August（三月总结） |
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ferncrest
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作者：ferncrest 在 谈股论金 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
Financial and tech stocks lead the market higher. The major indexes have their best month since 2002; first-quarter losses are trimmed substantially. Home prices are still falling. The rally faces big hurdles.
[Related content: stocks, investments, stock market, financial crisis, economy]
By Charley Blaine and Elizabeth Strott
Stocks recouped some of Monday's losses today, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) and the Standard & Poor's 500 Index ($INX) finished March with their largest gains since October 2002.
The Dow closed up 87 points, or 1.2%, to 7,609. The S&P 500 jumped 10 points, or 1.3%, to 798, and the Nasdaq Composite Index ($COMPX) was up 27 points, or 1.8%, to 1,529.
The Dow was up 7.7% for the month, its first gain after six months of losses. The S&P 500 finished March up 8.5%, its first gain after two months of losses.
The Nasdaq's 11.4% gain for the month was its best since November 2002, as the market was starting to recover from the dot-com bust and the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks.
The gains for the month trimmed losses for the quarter. The Dow, which had been down as much as 25% for the quarter on March 9, was off 13.3%. The S&P 500 was off 11.7%. The Nasdaq was off just 3.1%.
The Dow and S&P 500 suffered their sixth consecutive quarterly losses; the Nasdaq's loss was its fifth in six quarters.
Today's rally came after a serious drubbing on Monday as markets reacted with shock at the Obama administration's demands that General Motors (GM, news, msgs) and Chrysler Group rework their viability plans or face bankruptcy. The Dow had dropped 254 points.
But the rally had a downside. The Dow had been up as much as 203 points just before 3 p.m. ET but gave up more than 110 points in the last hour of trading as profit taking set in.
At the same time, the big gains since March 9 may not mean the market has bottomed. Stocks face significant hurdles in the next week, including:
* The G20 industrial nations are meeting in London, and there's worry that disagreements on strategies to get the global economies moving again will erupt into something ugly.
* The Financial Accounting Standards Board, which sets domestic accounting standards, meets Thursday and is expected to modify its mark-to-market standards. These are especially important to banks with large assets tied up in bad mortgage securities. Markets for these have largely collapsed, and the current standards require the banks to write them down essentially to zero even if it's likely the actual losses will be much smaller.
* The government will issue its monthly payrolls and unemployment report on Friday. That's expected to show the national unemployment rate topping 9%.
* Lastly, earnings season will start next week. Companies brave enough to issue guidance about expected results in the second quarter and the rest of the year will get close attention.
Financial stocks led the rebound from Monday, with JPMorgan Chase (JPM, news, msgs) up 7% to $26.58 and Goldman Sachs (GS, news, msgs) up 5.5% to $106.02. Bank of America (BAC, news, msgs) was the top performer among the 30 Dow stocks, with a 13.1% gain to $6.82.
Right behind was technology. Microsoft (MSFT, news, msgs) jumped 5.1% to $18.37 after brokerage Davenport upgraded stock to "buy" from "neutral," citing increased demand for personal computers in China and the United States, and potential restocking of inventories in Europe. (Microsoft is the publisher of MSN Money.)
Apple (AAPL, news, msgs) was up 0.6% to $105.12. IBM (IBM, news, msgs) was up 2.5% to $96.89.
Crude oil was higher today after getting drubbed on Monday. Crude closed up 2.6% to $49.96 a barrel in New York.
* Get free, real-time stock quotes on MSN Money
Since the rally erupted on March 10, the Dow is up more than 16.2%, with the S&P 500 up 17.9% and the Nasdaq up 20.5%.
Twenty-three Dow stocks were higher today, along with 373 S&P 500 stocks and 77 stocks in the Nasdaq-100Index ($NDX.X). The index, which tracks the largest Nasdaq stocks, was up 1.3% to 1,237.
Dow Jones industrials winners for March and first quarter March 2009 Tues. March chg. First quarter 2009 Tues. Qtr. chg.
Bank of America $6.82 72.66% IBM $96.89 15.13%
Citigroup $2.53 68.67% Intel $15.03 2.52%
DuPont $22.33 19.03% Home Depot $23.56 2.35%
General Electric $10.11 18.80% Coca-Cola $43.95 -2.92%
Intel $15.03 17.97% Microsoft $18.37 -5.50%
March: A great month for financial stocks
If you're a bull, March became a lovely month, starting March 10 when Citigroup officials said the troubled banking giant was enjoying its best quarter since 2007.
The Dow soared 379 points that day and added 497 points on March 23 when traders bought into Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner's plan to fix the banking system.
The indexes were up 10 times in the last 16 sessions of the month.
The only problem was that the first quarter was not pretty at all.
Of the 10 S&P 500 sectors, only technology showed a gain for the quarter -- 4%. Financials lost 29.5%.
Only 200 S&P stocks had gains for the quarter, led by Sprint (S, news, msgs), up 95.1% to $3.57.
Three other stocks to note: Whole Foods Market (WFMI, news, msgs), up 78% to $16.80; Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (FCX, news, msgs), up 55.9% to $38.11; and Morgan Stanley (MS, news, msgs), up 42% to $22.77.
Only three Dow stocks showed gains in the quarter: IBM, up 15.1%; Intel (INTC, news, msgs), 2.5%; and Home Depot (HD, news, msgs), up 2.4%. The laggard was Citigroup, down 62%.
March had a larger number of winners -- 27 Dow stocks and better than 250 S&P 500 stocks. And all 10 S&P 500 sectors.
The leaders reflected the big rally in financial stocks. The financial sector of the S&P 500 was up 17.7% for the month, followed by tech stocks and me<x>tals and materials stocks, up 12.1% and 12%, respectively.
The Dow was led by Bank of America, up 72.7%; Citigroup, up 68.7%; DuPont (DD, news, msgs), up 19%; and General Electric (GE, news, msgs), up 18.8%. The laggard was General Motors (GM, news, msgs), down 13.8% to $1.94.
Bank of America and Citigroup were second and third among S&P 500 stocks. The winner -- and don't cringe now -- was American International Group, up 138% to $1.
While it was nice to see financial stocks higher for the month, they lost 9.4% and 26.6% in January and February, respectively.
One last point about March. As big as the gains were, the CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX.X), the widely watched index that suggests if investors are fearful, didn't fall much in March, just 4.8%. It finished the quarter up to 44.14. By comparison, the index closed at 22.50 in 2007.
S&P 500 winners for March and first quarter March 2009 Tues. March chg. First quarter 2009 Tues. Qtr. chg.
American Intl. Group $1.00 138.10% Sprint Nextel $3.57 95.08%
Bank of America $6.82 72.66% Sun Microsystems $7.32 91.62%
Citigroup $2.53 68.67% Whole Foods Market $16.80 77.97%
MBIA $4.58 67.15% Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold $38.11 55.93%
Sun Microsystems $7.32 66.74% Micron Technology $4.06 53.79%
GM, Chrysler headed for splits?
The auto industry was still on the minds of investors today, as possible bankruptcy looms for GM and Chrysler.
The Obama administration is considering splitting up the "good" and "bad" assets of the two automakers and sending them into bankruptcy, The Wall Street Journal reported this morning.
GM's "good" brands, like Chevrolet and Cadillac, would remain at the company, with the company's other brands being sold.
Meanwhile, private-equity firm Cerberus Capital Management, which has owned an 80% stake in Chrysler for barely two years, won't own it for much longer, according to the Journal report. Cerberus will lose its equity stake in Chrysler as a condition of the Obama administration's plans to save the automaker from going under, the paper reported.
Cerberus would likely maintain its controlling stake in Chrysler Financial, the automaker's financing arm, the report said.
The administration's auto task force on Monday said Chrysler and GM had failed to prove they are viable companies.
* Talk back: Do you think GM can survive?
"I think bankruptcy is a very viable option, much better than a receivership," Ken Klee, of Klee Tuchin Bogdanoff, a bankruptcy firm not involved with the automakers, told Bloomberg News. "It needs to be treated as though it's in the emergency room."
On Monday, Ed Montgomery, a dean at the University of Maryland who served as the deputy secretary of labor in the Clinton administration, was appointed director of recovery for auto communities and workers.
GM's new CEO Fritz Henderson today said the company can meet the goals set by the auto task force before the June 1 deadline.
Chrysler received $4 billion in federal loans in December, and the company could get an additional $6 billion if it can secure a deal with Italian automaker Fiat (FIATY, news, msgs) within the next 30 days. GM has received $13.4 billion in loans; the company said last month it needs an additional $16.6 billion.
Energy prices -- New York close Tues. Mon. Chg. Month chg. YTD chg.
Crude oil (NYMEX) (per barrel) $49.66 $48.41 $1.25 10.95% 11.35%
Heating oil (per gallon) $1.3438 $1.3426 $0.0012 6.15% -4.40%
Natural gas (per million BTU) $3.7760 $3.7390 $0.0370 -10.05% -32.84%
Unleaded gasoline (per gallon) $1.4000 $1.3799 $0.0201 9.32% 38.86%
GM, Ford introduce customer plans
In other auto industry news: GM and Ford Motor (F, news, msgs) are launching plans to help out people who buy vehicles and then lose their jobs.
GM said it will cover up to nine payments of up to $500 per month during the first 24 months of ownership if a buyer loses his or her income. The automaker's program, called "GM Total Confidence," also offers vehicle value protection for trade-ins when buying a new GM vehicle, and other incentives.
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Ford's "Drive One" deal will cover payments of up to $700 for up to a year if customers lose their jobs, the company said this morning. Ford also reiterated that it will not seek government aid.
Hyundai Motor (HYMLF, news, msgs) first introduced payment-protection incentives for its customers in January, a move that helped boost its sales 4.9% in the first two months of the year, while the overall industry tanked.
Auto bankruptcy could push up jobless rate
If Chrysler or GM is forced to undergo bankruptcy protection, that could be really bad news for the economy, according to Deutsche Bank Chief Economist Joe LaVorgna.
An automaker bankruptcy would put about 1 million people out of work, which would add 1 percentage point to LaVorgna's estimates for the peak U.S. unemployment rate. Deutsche Bank economists currently believe unemployment will peak at 10.5%. "Financial markets are worried about the prospect of a GM and Chrysler bankruptcy, and rightly so," LaVorgna wrote in a report late Monday. A bankruptcy would weigh on real economic output, as well, according to LaVorgna, erasing 4 percentage points from a single quarter's real gross domestic production.
Economists are looking for a loss of 688,000 jobs in March, when the Labor Department releases its monthly jobs report on Friday. The unemployment rate is expected to have ticked up to 8.5% last month from 8.1% in February.
Today's economic reports
Investors have reports on the housing sector and consumer confidence to sort through today.
The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index fell a record 2.8% in January from December, with all 20 cities falling at least 1%. On a year-over-year basis, the index fell a record 19% in January. The 20-city index has been down for the past 30 months.
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The index is calculated from data on repeat sales of single family homes, an approach developed by economists Karl Case and Robert Shiller.
New-home sales rose an unexpected 4.7% in February, offering hope of a bottom in the housing market, but some economists believe sales are improving because of huge price cuts.
The Conference Board's report on consumer confidence showed some improvement this morning, coming in at a reading of 26 in March -- up slightly from the all-time low of 25.3 in February. Economists had expected a reading of 28.
"In the midst of pervasive weakness punctuated by a deteriorating job market, it is hardly surprising that consumers remain gloomy," Nomura chief economist David Resler wrote in a note to clients.
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for March fell to a reading of 31.4 from a reading of 34.2 in February.
Economists had expected the index, which is ba<x>sed on a survey of members of the organization, to rise in March.
Readings below 50 indicate contraction in the sector.
Retail sales pick up
Shoppers were out in the stores last week, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs Retail Chain Store Sales Index.
Overall sales rose by 1.1% for the week ending March 28 from the previous week. On a year-over-year basis, sales fell 0.2%.
The index fell by 0.4% in the week to March 21 from its level a week before, after dropping 0.4% in the prior week.
"Sales perked up late in the week and continued much stronger through the last weekend -- even adjusting for calendar shifts due to Easter," Michael Niemira, ICSC chief economist, said in a press release. "This solid weekly increase is a good omen for the retail sector and economy -- though demand improvement has a long road back," Niemira said.
Sales at high-end retailers are slow -- Macy's (M, news, msgs) recorded a 59% year-on-year drop in fourth-quarter sales. But sales at discount retailers are holding up in the recession. Wal-Mart (WMT, news, msgs) recorded a 5.1% jump in same-store sales in February. Andrew Rosenbaum contributed to this report.
Short hits from the markets -- New York close Tues. Mon. Chg. Month chg. YTD chg.
Treasurys
13-week Treasury bill 0.200% 0.120% 0.080 -20.00% 73.91%
5-year Treasury note yield 1.675% 1.727% -0.052 -17.08% 7.99%
10-year Treasury note yield 2.685% 2.714% -0.029 -11.71% 19.65%
30-year Treasury bond yield 3.561% 3.602% -0.041 -4.33% 32.33%
Currencies
U.S. Dollar Index 85.895 86.300 -0.405 -2.56% 4.56%
British pound in dollars $1.4325 $1.4273 0.0051 0.01% -2.78%
Dollar in British pounds £0.6981 £0.7006 -0.0025 -0.01% 2.86%
Euro in dollars $1.3259 $1.3252 0.0007 4.56% -5.36%
Dollar in euros € 0.7542 € 0.7546 -0.0004 -4.36% 5.66%
Dollar in yen 99.21 97.43 1.78 1.64% 9.44%
Canadian dollar in U.S. dollars $0.792 $0.793 -$0.0013 0.82% -3.17%
U.S. dollar in Canadian dollars $1.264 $1.261 $0.0030 -0.82% 3.27%
Commodities
Gold $925.00 $917.70 $7.30 -1.86% 4.60%
Copper $1.8445 $1.7660 $0.08 19.89% 30.82%
Silver $12.9850 $13.0330 -$0.05 -0.95% 15.39%
Corn $3.9100 $3.8625 $0.05 11.48% -3.93%
Crude oil (NYMEX) (per barrel) $49.66 $52.38 -$2.72 10.95% 11.35%
作者：ferncrest 在 谈股论金 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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 美股必读：Dow up 87, sees first monthly gain since August（三月总结） -- ferncrest - (15601 Byte) 2009-4-01 周三, 08:42 (1505 reads)
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