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 把goldriver先生的帖子搬拷过来 -- Hedge Fund Manager Jim Rogers Says Industry Peaked |
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大甩
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加入时间: 2004/11/19
文章: 112
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作者：大甩 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
Hedge Fund Manager Jim Rogers Says Industry Peaked (Update2)
Dec. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Jim Rogers, who co-founded the Quantum hedge fund with
investor George Soros, said the industry has peaked because stock and bond
returns are dwindling and there's a shortage of good money managers.
"I'm not too optimistic about hedge funds because you won't be making a lot
of money from stocks in the next 15 to 20 years and bonds will be doing
horribly,'' Rogers said today at a hedge fund conference in Tokyo. ``I'm
told there are almost 10,000 hedge funds. With overcrowding, there will be
some charlatans and incompetence. You can't have that many smart
29-year-olds around.''
Rogers, 62, who co-founded the Quantum Fund in 1970, said most of today's
managers made their reputations during the stock market rally of the 1990s.
It will be difficult to replicate that success in the future, he said.
Hedge funds are loosely regulated investment pools designed to profit from
falling as well as rising market prices. It's the most lucrative and
fastest-growing part of the money-management business. Globally, hedge funds
attracted more than $100 billion in the first nine months of 2004, boosting
the industry's assets to about $890 billion, according to estimates from
Tremont Capital Management Inc. in Rye, New York.
Rogers, who retired at the age of 37 with what he said was ``enough money to
satisfy a lifelong yearning for adventure,'' said commodities represented
the best asset class for investments and China was the best place to make
money.
Commodities Rally
"The current bull market in commodities started in 1999, and if you go back
in history, the shortest bull-market period was 15 years and the longest was
23 years,'' he said. ``Most commodities like sugar and coffee remain at low
prices. Even oil, adjusted for inflation, remains 50 percent below its
all-time high.''
An industrywide drop of investments to find oil in Mexico, Alaska and the
North Sea will probably drive oil prices higher, Rogers said. Brent crude
oil futures for January settlement was down 34 cents, or 0.8 percent, at
$45.17 a barrel on London's International Petroleum Exchange at 9:37 a.m. A
decade ago, oil cost about $17 a barrel.
The Chinese government will ease its currency peg to the U.S. dollar in the
next two to four years ahead of obligations made to the World Trade
Organization and its hosting of the 2008 Olympics in Beijing, Rogers said.
`Learning Chinese'
"China realizes it can't become a great country with a blocked currency,''
Rogers said. The yuan, pegged at 8.3 to the U.S. dollar, will appreciate "a
lot'' in the next two decades without hurting China's competitiveness in
world trade, he said.
The dollar remains `"a terribly flawed'' currency and Rogers reiterated
comments made this year that its value will fall further as the largest
debtor nation continues to borrow. `"I assure you it will get worse,'' he
said.
To illustrate his convictions in his investment strategies, Rogers said his
18-month old daughter has a Swiss bank account and a full-time Mandarin
tutor. ``She's learning Chinese, she's not learning French, for instance.''
Russell Comment -- Yeah, there may be too damn many hedge funds. They'll beat
each other to death. I agree with James. By the way, Rogers is one smart dude, and
he's made Watusi bucks. He was also smart enough to load up on commodities.
作者：大甩 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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 把goldriver先生的帖子搬拷过来 -- Hedge Fund Manager Jim Rogers Says Industry Peaked -- 大甩 - (3510 Byte) 2004-12-03 周五, 03:40 (1025 reads)
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