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 A list of potential problems China shall try to avoid before 2020 |
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ceo/cfo
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头衔: 海归中将
声望: 院士
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加入时间: 2004/11/05
文章: 12941
海归分: 491633
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作者：ceo/cfo 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
Risks to Chinese Economic Growth
Whether China’s rise occurs smoothly is a key uncertainty. In 2003, the RAND Corporation identified and assessed eight major risks to the continued rapid growth of China’s economy over the next decade. Its “Fault Lines in China’s Economic Terrain” highlighted:
Fragility of the financial system and state-owned enterprises
Economic effects of corruption
Water resources and pollution
Possible shrinkage of foreign direct investment
HIV/AIDS and epidemic diseases
Unemployment, poverty, and social unrest
Energy consumption and prices
Taiwan and other potential conflicts
RAND’s estimates of the negative growth impact of these adverse developments occurring separately on a one-at-a-time basis range from a low of between 0.3 and 0.8 percentage points for the effects of poverty, social unrest, and unemployment to a high of between 1.8 and 2.2 percentage points for epidemic disease.
The study assessed the probability that none of these developments would occur before 2015 as low and noted that they would be more likely to occur in clusters rather than individually – financial distress, for example, would also worsen corruption, compound unemployment, poverty, and social unrest, and reduce foreign direct investment.
RAND assessed the probability of all of these adverse developments occurring before 2015 as very low but estimated that should they all occur their cumulative effect would be to reduce Chinese economic growth by between 7.4 and 10.7 percentage points—effectively wiping out growth during that time frame.
作者：ceo/cfo 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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 A list of potential problems China shall try to avoid before 2020 -- ceo/cfo - (1623 Byte) 2005-1-15 周六, 14:34 (624 reads)
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